Great Falls, Virginia, Real Estate Market – Fall 2025
By PUNEET BHAGI – REAL ESTATE BROKER
Overview
Great Falls remains one of the most premium housing markets in Northern Virginia. Homes here are high-end, often large, and located on spacious lots — appealing to buyers seeking space, privacy, and proximity to Washington, D.C.
However, like many high-value suburbs, Great Falls is showing signs of cooling amid broader macroeconomic pressures such as high mortgage rates, tightening affordability, and shifting inventory dynamics.
Key Metrics & Recent Moves
Below is a snapshot of the current Great Falls market conditions:
| Metric | Value | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Median Home Value | ~$1.63M (+3.4% YoY) | Zillow |
| Median Listing Price | ~$2.2M (as of Aug 2025) | Realtor |
| Median Sale Price | ~$1.6M (–3.8% YoY) | Redfin |
| Days on Market | ~50–60 days | Redfin |
| Months of Supply | ~3.2 months | Market Minute |
These numbers paint a picture of a steady but cooling high-end market. Prices are stable, but homes are staying on the market longer, and buyers are gaining slightly more negotiating power.
What’s Changing & What’s Driving It
- Prices Slightly Softening for Sellers:
Some metrics show median sale prices down from last year or flattening. Homes aren’t selling as fast, giving buyers more leverage. - Per-Square-Foot Values Moving Up:
Even though overall price growth has slowed, the price per square foot has ticked up — showing continued strength in property fundamentals. - Inventory & New Listings:
A slight uptick in availability, though active inventory remains limited. Fewer new listings are entering the market compared to last year, keeping supply tight. - Time on Market:
Homes are taking longer to sell. Buyers are more selective; realistic pricing is key for sellers. - Buyer Behavior & Competition:
The market remains “somewhat competitive.” Multiple offers still occur, but less dramatically than in peak years. Many homes sell below asking or with seller incentives.
Who’s Winning (and Losing)
Winners:
- Buyers with strong credit or cash offers are gaining leverage.
- Sellers with move-in ready, well-marketed homes continue to perform well.
- Homes priced right for their tier attract solid interest.
Under Pressure:
- Sellers who overprice based on past years’ growth.
- Homes needing significant renovation or located less favorably.
- Buyers stretched by high mortgage rates and taxes are focusing more on efficiency and value.
What to Watch Going Forward
- Mortgage Rates: Any decrease could unlock pent-up demand, but high rates remain a headwind.
- Inventory Growth: An increase in listings could lengthen days on market further.
- Economic Conditions: The D.C. metro area’s employment trends and commuting patterns will heavily shape demand.
- Regional Comparison: Neighboring areas with lower costs may attract some buyers away.
- Migration Trends: Great Falls remains appealing for buyers moving out of denser metro zones.
Bottom Line
Great Falls’ real estate market in Fall 2025 is in a moderation phase — not declining, but adjusting. Price growth is modest or flat, inventory is loosening, and buyers are gaining a bit more control.
For sellers, the focus should be realistic pricing and strong presentation.
For buyers, it’s a promising window — especially for those positioned to move confidently in a premium market that continues to hold long-term value.
